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How to beat a bookmaker?

To beat a bookmaker, you do not need to guess the outcome of a specific match or the results of all games. Every odd in a betting line contains the probability of an event. For example, a decimal coefficient of 2.00 (1/1 for UK or +100 for US) corresponds to a probability of 50%. If you guess more than 50% of matches with this coefficient over the long term, you will make a profit. The task is to find events whose real probability is higher than those odds which the bookmaker has declared for them.

4.00 Odd which the bookmaker has given
1/4*100 = 25% The probability that bets on these odds will be break-even

If the real probability of the event turned out to be 20%, then for 100 bets we will get 20 wins. By making equal bets at $100, we will bet 100*100 = $10,000, and win 100*20*4 = $8,000. Thus, the bookmaker will make a positive gain of $2,000.

If the real probability of the event turned out to be 30%, then for 100 bets we get 30 wins. Therefore, with the same bets, we will win 100*30*4 = $12,000 and now we will be in the black with $2,000.

Why the bookmaker will allow you to beat him?

In reality, the distribution and dynamics of the odds does not always depend on the probability of the event but often on the dynamics of the betting market. The bookmaker lowers each odd by 2-10%. This is a margin that allows it to remain in the positive gain at any outcome. Therefore, it is more important for the bookmaker to determine the correct balance of bets, rather than the probability of an outcome. 95% of the players in a betting company lose money. Therefore, the main task of the bookmaker is to evenly distribute the money of the majority in the company.

The bookmaker determines that the probability of a win for each tennis player is 50%. This is equivalent to odds of 2.00 against 2.00 At the opening of the betting line, the bookmaker sets the odds taking into account his margin of 5% - 1.90 against 1.90. If 100 people place $100 on each side, the bookmaker will gain 100 x 100 x 2 = $20,000. From one side’s win he needs to pay out the winners 100 x 100 x 1.9 = $19,000. Thus, net profit will be $1,000.

Suppose, for some reason, most players are confident in the victory of the first tennis player and bets are distributed according to the proportion: 80% (160 people) to 20% (40 people). In this case, if the bookmaker leaves the odds based on probability, in case the first tennis player wins, he will have to pay 150 x 100 x 1.9 = $ 30,400 and take a loss of $10,400. Therefore, it is more profitable for a bookmaker to change the odds in accordance with the market, rather than the probability of the event. The odds corresponding to 80% and 20% are 1.25 and 5.00. With a margin of 5%, this will be 1.20 and 4.6. Then, if the first tennis player wins, the bookmaker will need to pay 160 x 100 x 1.2 = $19,200. And with the victory of the second 40 x 100 x 4.6 = $18,400. Thus, in both cases, the payout will be less than the collected amount of $20,000, which will allow the bookmaker in any case to be in the black.

How we find overvalued odds?

The secret is that a lot of players act intuitively and react to the incorrect markers. They are guided by intuition and dubious strategies. 95% of them consistently lose. But the market follows their bets. If the majority puts bets on Nadal, then the odds against him grow. Our task is to use software to determine the value after which the odds will be profitable and one slip-up of the favorite will compensate us for all his wins. To do this, we are writing a software program that analyzes the markets and movements of the quotes. Based on a large amount of data, it identifies markers and looks for odds that are overvalued. Often they appear for several hours or minutes. But with steady use and over the long term, each user of our site has the opportunity to use a reliable tool for professional gaming without investing huge amounts of their own means and time into developing their own software.

The score of a football match in which one team was perceived as the clear favorite is still a draw. There are 10 minutes left until the end of the game. The favorite’s odds of winning are 4.60 against 1.20 on the outcome that they won’t win. Suddenly, the underdog receives a red card and the favorite team is in the majority. The odds change to 4.00 against 1.25. For most players, this often turns out to be a signal for action and they cause the fall of the odds for the favorite to 3.50, raising the quote for the underdog up to 1.30.

For most of them, it does not matter which odds the bookmaker gives. Logic is limited by the mindset “the favorite is in the majority, so they will pull off a win”. But in reality, the favorite is not always pressed to win. Often, playing in the minority only provokes the underdog to deeply defend a draw, playing to keep the score.

Of course, after receiving a red card, the probability of the underdog saving the draw falls. But it falls by only 3%, while the odds fall by 6% due to the market's reaction to the bright marker. Due to the full action in live play, the bookmaker has to use automatic tools to adjust the odds. Meanwhile, our algorithm determines what amount of bets for this situation are abnormal and at what stage the odds have become overvalued.

Our algorithm analyzes hundreds of match events: cards, corners, fouls, leadership of the home team, the guests, the percentage of possession and many markers that are not obvious to the human eye, which in practice have been identified by the neural network as important. Next, we get the artificial neural network to look for different combinations between these events and their variations. The ANN saves those patterns in the game that players react to and tries to determine the deviation rate from the current odds when such a pattern appears, comparing the results with new data and making corrections based on the new data. Thus, the network is self-learning.

Those algorithms that show favorable results over the long term are separated out by the program into a table in the form of rates. Rates and their results are saved and then the program compares the data and uses it for self-training.

The program is constantly being developed by the Bethub team. It is populated with more data for analysis, and we connect new markers and tools to it. As a result, despite the diminishing volatility of the betting lines and the high pace of technical development of the bookmakers themselves, our software is becoming more stable, stronger and widespread each year.

How to bet correctly?

1. Don’t place a bet if the odds have changed

The maximum acceptable drop in odds is 3%. This value is the average revaluation of the odds by a bookmaker based on our market research and software statistics.

If you lose even 1%, then over a long term you can incur a loss instead of a profit.

Remember that the tool is free and is in the public domain. Thousands of players use it every day. Therefore, catching the latest odds is not always easy.

2. Do not place more than one bet per match

In extreme cases, the number of bets on each event should be fixed. But in this case, you need to limit yourself only to big markets.

The fact is that the algorithm determines only the vector of the revalued market. 25-40% of matches may be incorrectly determined. This is a normal indicator in which the overall result remains positive. But if you place bets unevenly, then most of them may end up in incorrectly defined matches.

Unfortunately, we do not know what is happening inside the neural network. We don’t know which bets were determined correctly and which odds turned out to be overvalued (if you figure out how to find out, feel free to apply for a Turing award). Therefore, it is very important to make equal and stable bets.

3. Place a flat of 1-3% of the jackpot

The drawdown of the program on low-profit bookmakers (with a large margin) during the tests reached 75%. Thus, only rates not exceeding 1.3% of the jackpot could guarantee the safety of the jackpot through the entire time of testing the software. There is also no guarantee that this was the maximum drawdown level, despite statistics of 100,000 bets. Also, with mass use, there is always the possibility of mistakes, both technical on our part and due to the human factor on the part of the players.

4. Consider working with the program as learning

It is very difficult to make big profits on public tools used by the masses. The success story of all professional players is in the large body of their developments and in the algorithms that appear gradually as you study the various disciplines related to betting.

Now you have a huge listing of currency rates, which works 7 days a week around the clock in automatic mode. Constantly seeing revalued odds in the betting line, you learn to understand the market, its movement and the actions of players.

Our research of the bets by players who used our software showed that even by simply duplicating 100 bets every day for several months, the players improved their performance, making further bets independently in comparison with the documented results before using our software.

How long the algorithm will remain free?

Unfortunately, the odds decrease when users place bets on them. Therefore, each bet has a certain limit on the amount that can be put in the betting office. Already, some odds appear for only a few minutes, while others fall immediately after the first bet.

This year is the last in which we test our software and invest only our own funds in it. Soon we will make access to our software paid. Only users of the paid version will be able to bet on the latest odds and watch the full list of events and quotes. With the funds from the sale of subscriptions, we will continue to develop our product, bolstering its stability and efficiency.

For users of the free version, we will leave access to live rates, but with a delay of several minutes. Thus, people who financially help the project will gain an advantage, but the rest will be able to see all the data in the public domain and check the effectiveness of the listing, putting bets on the odds that did not have time to collapse after the initial betting pool from the main users.

Registration Benefits

Registered users get the opportunity to save the bets that they made in their statistics. To do this, simply click on the plus sign, which is opposite each match.

In the statistics section, users can calculate profits for each month and across all bids ever placed. In addition to betting with Bethub, each user can add their own bets and use the statistics as a convenient tool for analyzing their game.

It is also possible for registered players to set their relevant time zone and type of odds, which will allow them to see the correct time of matches upon each next visit to the site.

Telegram

For those who find it convenient to receive forecasts through the messenger app, we have launched a channel on Telegram where the 10 most popular bets from our site are published every day.

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